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Introduction[/b]

During the second half of 1996 a blue ribbon panel of aerospace and communications executives known as the Satellite Industry Task Force (SITF) presented their study findings on the future of U.S. satellite communications to Vice President Albert Gore. This presentation was made to top U.S. government leaders from NASA, the Department of Defense and the Office of Science and Technology in the White House. This panel, chaired by Dr. Thomas Brackey of Hughes, acknowledged that a strong research role in the field of satellite communications was appropriate for the U.S. government in a time when satellites were entering a key new stage of growth and expansion into new applications. This new stage involves an explosion of new technology and applications with the rapid deployment of new mobile, direct broadcast and high data rate/multimedia satellite services. Some analyst believe this field will grow from its current level of $18 billion a year to over $50 billion in the next five years.

This report of the SITF noted that international competitiveness was certainly an issue and that U.S. leadership could be challenged during the crucial period of new growth and expansion. Among the recommendations made in the SITF report was that an international assessment should be made of exactly where U.S. technologies and new applications stand in comparison to other countries around the world who are aggressively entering the new satellite markets.

Accordingly, on February 26, 1997, NASA and NSF officials convened a respected panel of experts in Washington, DC to begin a detailed assessment of the status of satellite communications systems and technologies around the world . This is to be a detailed review of current capabilities in the U.S., compared to the other major industrial countries (e.g., Japan and Western Europe). These findings will be contrasted and compared with a similar study commissioned by NASA and the NSF five years ago in order to baseline the current study findings. The study panel is headed by Thomas Brackey, Executive Director of Technical Operations at Hughes Space & Communications, Burton Edelson, former Associate Administrator of NASA and former director of Comsat Laboratories, and Joseph N. Pelton, Dean of the International Space University and Professor of Telecommunications, University of Colorado at Boulder, who will chair the panel. Al Mac Rae, formerly of AT&T Bell Labs, will serve as panel co-chair.

Also participating in the study will be Charles Bostian of Virginia Tech, William Brandon of Mitre, Vincent Chan of Lincoln Labs, John Evans of Comsat, Chris Mahle, formerly of Comsat Labs, Neil Helm of George Washington University, Stephen Townes of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Kul Bhasin of NASA Lewis Research Center, and Walda Roseman of CompassRose International. In addition a broad-based editorial review board widely representative of the aerospace and communications industries will participate in the final review and drafting of the report, which is due by early 1998. The panel will present preliminary findings at a workshop to be held in the Washington, DC area on December 3, 1997 at the Rosslyn Westpark Hotel in Arlington, VA (1-703-527-4814).

Background

The World Technology Evaluation Center (WTEC) at Loyola College in Maryland has been funded by a cooperative agreement from the National Science Foundation (NSF) to perform a series of international technology assessments. Additional support from the Department of Energy, DARPA, the Department of Commerce, the Army Research Office, ONR, USAF, and NASA has been received for studies in which these agencies have an interest. Panels of experts under the WTEC methodology have assessed or are assessing international R&D in a number of technology areas including: superconductivity, spacecraft propulsion, advanced computing, nuclear power generation, construction technologies, X-ray lithography, machine translation, bioprocessing, database systems, display technologies, knowledge-based systems, materials handling, separation technologies, satellite communications, microelectromechanical systems, electronic packaging, undersea technologies, manufacturing of polymer composites, optoelectronics, casting, and rapid prototyping.

The following is an outline of the original task statement for the WTEC satellite communications assessment initiated by NASA and NSF in early 1997. A revised and more detailed study plan is now being completed by the above panel, and will be posted to this web site shortly.

[b]Purpose and Scope

WTEC completed an international assessment of satellite communications systems and technology for NASA and NSF in July 1993. This study found that the United States had lost its leading position in many critical satellite communications technologies. Although U.S. companies dominated the world market for satellite communications services at the time of the study, ambitious new R&D efforts underway in both Europe and Japan were judged likely to contribute to continuing erosion of U.S. competitiveness in technology for next generation systems, thus putting the future market share of the U.S. satellite communications industry at risk. The authors pointed to comparatively strong government policies and programs in Europe and Japan as contributing factors to this decline in U.S. competitiveness. The study identified several emerging technology and applications areas (e.g., high data rate services, small satellites and small/mobile/low-cost groundstations) which present opportunities for the United States to improve its future position in this industry.

The 1993 report received considerable attention in both the specialized and the general media, and sparked a debate within the U.S. aerospace, communications, and science policy communities on how the United States should respond to these findings. An informal collaborative R&D program was established to coordinate efforts at the University of New Mexico, Air Force Phillips Laboratory, and two national laboratories. The Mitre Corporation convened a meeting of U.S. satellite manufacturers to discuss the possibility of establishing a private satellite technology consortium (December 1994). While no action was taken at this time, such a consortium has been formed under the Telecommunications Industries Association (TIA) in January 1996. The informal consortium which preceded the TIA organization had delivered a briefing to the White House in September, 1995. Many believe the 1993 study coalesced these industry actions.

Representatives of some U.S. companies criticized the report for not including a detailed review of U.S. activities as part of its methodology. While such a review was not possible in the available time or funding of the 1993 study, it would have been of value in sharpening the recommendations.

There is now a need to update the 1993 report for the following reasons:

Emerging European and Japanese R&D programs identified by the panel have now achieved results that bear examination. The U.S. needs information on these results and on any follow-on or new programs planned for the future.
Russia has entered into the international competition for satellite communications services. Early indications of this identified in the 1993 report need a complete update; some early programs have failed; others have been re-named or re-configured so completely as to be unrecognizable.
New products and services discussed in the 1993 report (e.g., ORBCOMM, IRIDIUM) have achieved some operational experience or advanced development; their success or failure will have an important impact on the overall technology and market prospects.
New opportunities not identified by the 1993 study have arisen (e.g., one-way high-bandwidth satellite-based Internet services).
New developments in fiber optic and free space optical communications have heated up the competition between the ground- and space-based communications industries. WTEC has just completed an assessment of optoelectronics (including optical communications) in the U.S. and Japan that would complement an update of the 1993 satellite communications report.
The size and configuration of the future satellite communications industry will have a huge impact on the launcher business. Similarly, rapid developments in launcher technology and markets will have a profound effect on the communications industry. There is a need to take a broad look at the demand for communications-related launch services in relation to the payload capacities, cost, and risk factors of available launching systems worldwide.
The NASA ACTS program is planned for continuation through September 2000. This presents an extended opportunity for the satellite communications industry to use this asset as an on-orbit test bed especially in the area of medium to high bandwidth applications and satellite/terrestrial networking interoperability issues.
In addition, a follow-on study could begin with a thorough review of the U.S. satellite communications industry, including visits to leading U.S. companies. This would provide a more complete benchmark against which to measure the rest of the world than was possible with the 1993 study.

This study will review the current status of research, development, and applications in satellite communications in the United States, Japan, Western Europe, and Russia with a view towards evaluating the competitive status of U.S. efforts and identifying new strategies the U.S. government and industry could employ to improve the future position of the U.S. industry. It will also assess current international collaborative activities and identify opportunities for new approaches and topics for further international cooperation in this field.

Scope

The following topics and issues are under consideration by the sponsors and panelists in determining the final scope of the study:

Technologies to be Covered

TWT/TWTA & Transponders
Solid state, materials, devices, monolithic devices (MMICs), SSPAs
Antennas & feed systems, phased arrays and optical control
Ground systems
Free space optical/laser communications
Superconductivity
Launch vehicles & station keeping
On-board processing & data storage
Batteries
Standards & protocols
Interoperability of hybrid networks
Advanced technologies such as photonics & superconductivity
Nanotechnology and micromechanical devices
Orbit and spectrum sharing and efficient use
Application Areas to be Covered

DBS
FSS
MSS
NAV (RDSS)
High data rate communications (over 45 Mbs)
Networks
ISL
DAB
Rural and SCADA
VSAT/USAT
Air Traffic Management via satcom
Internet applications
Hybrid networks
Other Technical Issues:

LEO, MEO, ELL, other new orbital concepts
Small satellites and terminals
Terrestrial interfaces (e.g., fiber)
Precipitation and attenuation
Needs for frequency spectrum
Autonomous spacecraft/payload control
Bit-by-bit processing & other advanced concepts
Orbital debris
Satcom industry launch vehicle requirements
Advanced studies and technology development: policy relationships
Other Non-Technical Issues

Funding levels for both industry and government R&D programs
Cooperation between industry and government research teams
International cooperation: both current activities and opportunities for the future.
R&D methodology (e.g., size and educational background of research teams, management strategy, etc.)
Research infrastructure and education

Countries to be Visited:
A detailed list of sites to be visited will be developed at the beginning of the study. The starting point will be the list of sites visited by the previous study (see site reports, Volume II of the 1993 report). A preliminary list of likely countries to visit includes the U.S., Japan, Germany, France, Italy, U.K., and Russia